Some New M's? (Part 2)

We all know the Mariners will not land a big free agent, such as Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee, but nonetheless, they find themselves interested quite a few free agent possibilities and trade candidates. Let's have a look at who the M's are tied to and I'll give my take on them:

Zack Greinke, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals: So, the biggest high profile name that the Mariners have been tied to is also one that they would have to give the most up for.

Upsides: Greinke of course, beat out Felix for the 2009 Cy Young, but like Felix in 2010, did on one of the worst teams in all of baseball. His WHIP slid a bit, (1.245 compared to 09's 1.073) as did his strikeouts per 9 innings (7.4 compared to 09's 9.5), but 2010 was a lot like the rest of the years of his career, still be very consistent and strong seasons. He's still a potential elite talent and he's only 27 years old.

Downsides: He makes over 9 million a year which would serious limit any other moves we could make. Also, the only way he's getting to Mariners is by way of a trade that probably involves someone like Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley, or Carlos Truifel. While I love a lot of the upsides of adding Greinke to the rotation, I don't like what may have to be lost for this deal.

I would make this deal if...: Only one major prospect was given up, the Royals pickup well over a majority of Greinke's remaining salary, Greinke is open to discussing a long term contract with Seattle and any other minor league players sent in this one are either blocked by a long term signed major leaguer 0r no longer being considered starters for the big league roster (Rob Johnson, Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo anyone). Yeah, that is a long wish list, but with how well Hernandez, Vargas and Fister did last year with the possibilities of Bedard and Pineda added to the rotation, I'm not to worried about filling these needs. Since this is a rebuild year, I don't mind letting Luke French or David Pauley hold a spot for Pineda or take Bedard's spot for a while. However, if we were to have Greinke long term for an affordable deal, I'd be down.


Matt Diaz, Outfielder, Free Agent: A platoon outfielder that spent that last few years in Atlanta.

Upsides: The M's would hope to platoon Diaz with Michael Saunders in left putting Diaz in the lineup against left-handed pitching, who he's had a good career batting against (.335 batting average, .370 on-base percentage and .533 slugging percentage). Overall, he's a lifetime .301 hitter and can play an adequate leftfield, (led the league in range factor per 9 innings in 2007)

Downsides: He made 2.5 million in his last contract and that's a lot for the Mariners to pay a part time player. Especially, since his hitting against righties is passable at best and has only played over 90 games 3 out of the 8 seasons he's been at the big league level.

I would make this deal if...: We could spend less on Diaz than the Braves did. With the budget being tight, I'd rather not wrap a lot of money in a platoon player, even if he hits lefties well. I doubt that will be possible as quite a few other teams are interested in him.


Eric Chavez, Third Baseman, Free Agent: After 12 years in Oakland, Chavez hits free agency looking to rebound from injuries that have plagued him.

Upsides: Chavez, when healthy, is very similar to Adrian Beltre with the added bonus that he hits left handed. He won the gold glove award 6 seasons straight, starting in 2001 and for all those that follow new fangled statistics, he was in the top 5 in range factor, total zone runs and fielding percentage in nearly all those years. In fact, he has the sixth highest career fielding percentage as a third baseman and second highest among active players, but who the hell is going to put Mike Lowell (highest career fielding percentage for a third baseman) at the hot corner this year? Chavez also has 7 years of hitting 20 plus home runs, once led the league in walks (95 in 2004), and has a career .343 on base percentage.

Downsides: A lot of the praises I just sang about Chavez have not been evident since 2006. He played 90 games in 2007, and managed to hit 15 homers, but then he's only played 64 major league games since the start of the 2008 season. His fielding is still top notch, but his ability to stay healthy is a major issue when considering any contract with Chavez. Chavez also just made 12.5 million last year and while he would hopefully not expect a contract anywhere near that, he may have something of a high asking price.

I would make this deal if...: Chavez accepts a non-guaranteed contract or one with a small base salary laced with incentives for games played and plate appearances. I would want the whole to be null and void if he was unable to make it through spring training healthy. Also, if Ackley is ready bigs, I would like the M's to be prepared move Chone Figgins rather than play him at third and bat Chavez at DH. If healthy, Chavez's glove is too good to keep off the field.


Jack Cust, Designated Hitter/Outfielder, Athletics: Former A's slugger non-tendered and available.

Upsides: Since seeing ample playing time in 2007, Jack Cust has averaged 24 home runs over each of the last seasons, (28 if you don't include 2010, more on that later). He has a career on-base percentage of .378, (better than any Mariner posted last season), a career .452 slugging percentage (better than all Mariners in2010 except for the 57 games Russell Branyan played and 30 games of Mike Sweeney), and a career on-base plus slugging percentage of .830 (better than any Mariner in 2010 posted).

Downsides: He's a DH, and while he did play 16 games in the outfield last season, it's not something he should do regularly. Being the stereotypical big man power hitter of the long ball era, he has no speed. Also, he was sent to minors at the start of last season after leading the league in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons and strikes out about 30 percent of the time that he steps to the plate.

I would make this deal if...: He doesn't request a giant raise over last year's salary (he made 2.65 mil in 2010). For a guy that's probably a guaranteed 25+ homers, 3 million isn't that bad and he doesn't come with the back issues that Russell Branyan does.


Rich Harden, Starting Pitcher, Free Agent: Comeback hopeful of 2010 looking to make yet another comeback.

Upsides: With career 9.1 strikeouts per 9 innings and 3.65 ERA, Harden is a compelling case for solid veteran. He came out of the same Oakland system that saw the rise of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder, and he has pitched at least 20 games over each of the last 3 seasons.

Downsides: Harden was brought into Texas with the hope that he'd anchor their staff, but he only started 18 games and did not make the playoff roster. His season was abysmal (5.58 ERA with a 1.663 WHIP with 18 homers and only 92 innings pitched) and he was paid 6.5 million for it.

I would make this deal if...: it was a year ago, maybe. While Rich Harden could comeback to form, which by that I mean 2008's or 2004's version, why risk it? In a lot of ways, Harden is like Erik Bedard, except he doesn't pitch that well when he's hurting. While the strikeouts per 9 innings is glitzy, he was no where near that total last year and I really don't like him over the options that we already have. I could suggest a non-guaranteed or incentive based plan, but enough teams are interested he would probably not want to go that route and I would not want to give him a higher base rate than the league minimum.


Greg Zaun, Catcher, Free Agent: Longtime veteran looking for work once again.

Upsides: Zaun is experienced, which in catcher's terms means he's probably got a managing gig setup once he quites playing. He can field the position and call the pitches better than any of our other options right now. Plus, he can get on base (.344), better than our other options and only strikes out once out every seven to eight at bats. Apparently, he's good at controlling the clubhouse and a real leader.

Downsides: Zaun is experienced, which in life terms means he's 39. He's a part time player at best, having only played over 100 games 4 times in his 16 big league seasons. He's also pretty easy to be when stealing a base as Zaun only has a 24% rate of catching base stealers.

I would make this deal if...: I could be sure to get at least 90 games out of Zaun and sign him for 1.5 million tops. If Adam Moore proves himself, I don't want to spend a couple million to see Zaun on the bench each day.


Hideki Matsui, Designated Hitter, Free Agent: A rival this past season, perhaps the answer to the need for a lefthanded power bat?

Upsides: Matsui can still swing a powerful bat and managed to stroke out 21 homers last year. He has a career .290 average with a .369 on-base percentage and a career slugging percentage of .479. Exactly the kind of numbers you would want from a full time hitter. Plus, by adding the former Japanese slugger, the club may see increased revenue from overseas.

Downsides: Matsui should not see field action, especially in Safeco's giant outfield. He's a fulltime DH which doesn't allow a lot of flex in the lineup. He also be turning 37.

I would make this deal if...: Matsui would accept a lower salary than the 6.5 million from last year. I don't mind a fulltime DH that would add much needed power, but that's a high price to pay.


Miguel Olivo, Catcher, Free Agent: Former Mariner around for another go?

Upsides: He has better fielding and offense than the current options.

Downsides: He's being considered a backup for Moore.

I would make this deal if...: Olivo was to get more playing time than Moore.


Luis Valbuena, Infielder, Indians: Another former Mariner.

Upsides: He can handle second base until Ackley is ready and he can takeover shortstop when Jack Wilson gets injured. Still young at 25 years old.

Downsides: Not an offensive threat, though an improvement over Wilson.

I would make this deal if...: If we could give up a cheap player of the farm system. Valbuena barely makes more than the league minimum so this could be a possibility.