No Mo' Rob-0!

Rob Johnson was traded to the San Diego Padres. He was designated for assignment last week and with ten days to sign, release or trade him, Jack Z sent him down the west coast for either money or a player to be named later. I applaud this as it means that Rob Johnson will not find himself on the Mariners' catching depth chart and that Z is not going to giving players too many chances. I know Olivo may not work out, but I'm glad if he doesn't, Johnson will be an option down the line. I'm indifferent to what we get for him as this more of a banishing than an acquisition.

Mariners get Brendan Ryan!

So, yeah Brendan Ryan! In an off season where people are watching Cliff Lee and have already seen big signings, this one will definitely not get anyone overly excited. However, it's another "solid" signing.

First off, he was cheap. Ryan has been with the Cardinals since being drafted in 03' and currently makes the league minimum. While he is eligible for arbitration, he won't be getting a giant raise due to a poor offensive year. In order to get Ryan, the Mariners gave up pitching prospect Maikel Cleto, who has never pitched above High-A in the minors and has an ugly 5.17 career ERA in the low minors.

Secondly, Ryan is primarily a shortstop, having played there in 312 games at the big league level, but he also has 59 games at second as well. Essentially, he can fill in at second base should Ackley not be ready for the bigs coming out of spring training, and when Ackley is ready, Ryan can start stealing time from the oft-injured, rapidly declining Jack Wilson.

Third, Ryan is a great defensive shortstop, having been #1 or 2 for the last two seasons in the following defensive categories: total zones runs as a shortstop, range factor per 9 innings as shortstop, and range factor per game as a shortstop. He's only 28, so he could hold down this spot for a while.

All in all, a good move.

Miguel Olivo

Also a Mariner. Many people are not too stoked for this, as the Miguel Olivo they remember couldn't bat over the Mendoza line and was painful to watch at the plate. Since then, he's batted .256 and plated 85 home runs. Since 2006, Mariners catchers have batted a collective .245 and knocked 68 homers. So, there is definite pop.

Unfortunately, Olivo is a horrendous free swinger and has never walked more than 27 times in a season. There will be big strike outs and off kilter hits, but there will be a semi-legitimate power threat. Also, there will be triples and stolen bases, as Olivo has some speed.

Defensively, Olivo has thrown out 42 percent of would be base stealer, but he's also allowed quite a few passed balls.

Jack Cust...

Is the new Mariner's DH. I am very pleased with this signing as Cust has been added for 2.5 mil with an extra $150,000 available in incentives. According to Cust, Zdurencik plans to have him in lineups against both righties and lefties. Career wise, he's twice as likely to homer off righties versus lefties, but his on base is respectable against lefties (.350). He's about half the cost of Matsui with the same amount of power production and about 1 million more than Branyan without the back issues. He strikeouts out a lot, but also reaches base a lot as well. Very Good Move!

Some New M's? (Part 2)

We all know the Mariners will not land a big free agent, such as Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee, but nonetheless, they find themselves interested quite a few free agent possibilities and trade candidates. Let's have a look at who the M's are tied to and I'll give my take on them:

Zack Greinke, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals: So, the biggest high profile name that the Mariners have been tied to is also one that they would have to give the most up for.

Upsides: Greinke of course, beat out Felix for the 2009 Cy Young, but like Felix in 2010, did on one of the worst teams in all of baseball. His WHIP slid a bit, (1.245 compared to 09's 1.073) as did his strikeouts per 9 innings (7.4 compared to 09's 9.5), but 2010 was a lot like the rest of the years of his career, still be very consistent and strong seasons. He's still a potential elite talent and he's only 27 years old.

Downsides: He makes over 9 million a year which would serious limit any other moves we could make. Also, the only way he's getting to Mariners is by way of a trade that probably involves someone like Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley, or Carlos Truifel. While I love a lot of the upsides of adding Greinke to the rotation, I don't like what may have to be lost for this deal.

I would make this deal if...: Only one major prospect was given up, the Royals pickup well over a majority of Greinke's remaining salary, Greinke is open to discussing a long term contract with Seattle and any other minor league players sent in this one are either blocked by a long term signed major leaguer 0r no longer being considered starters for the big league roster (Rob Johnson, Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo anyone). Yeah, that is a long wish list, but with how well Hernandez, Vargas and Fister did last year with the possibilities of Bedard and Pineda added to the rotation, I'm not to worried about filling these needs. Since this is a rebuild year, I don't mind letting Luke French or David Pauley hold a spot for Pineda or take Bedard's spot for a while. However, if we were to have Greinke long term for an affordable deal, I'd be down.


Matt Diaz, Outfielder, Free Agent: A platoon outfielder that spent that last few years in Atlanta.

Upsides: The M's would hope to platoon Diaz with Michael Saunders in left putting Diaz in the lineup against left-handed pitching, who he's had a good career batting against (.335 batting average, .370 on-base percentage and .533 slugging percentage). Overall, he's a lifetime .301 hitter and can play an adequate leftfield, (led the league in range factor per 9 innings in 2007)

Downsides: He made 2.5 million in his last contract and that's a lot for the Mariners to pay a part time player. Especially, since his hitting against righties is passable at best and has only played over 90 games 3 out of the 8 seasons he's been at the big league level.

I would make this deal if...: We could spend less on Diaz than the Braves did. With the budget being tight, I'd rather not wrap a lot of money in a platoon player, even if he hits lefties well. I doubt that will be possible as quite a few other teams are interested in him.


Eric Chavez, Third Baseman, Free Agent: After 12 years in Oakland, Chavez hits free agency looking to rebound from injuries that have plagued him.

Upsides: Chavez, when healthy, is very similar to Adrian Beltre with the added bonus that he hits left handed. He won the gold glove award 6 seasons straight, starting in 2001 and for all those that follow new fangled statistics, he was in the top 5 in range factor, total zone runs and fielding percentage in nearly all those years. In fact, he has the sixth highest career fielding percentage as a third baseman and second highest among active players, but who the hell is going to put Mike Lowell (highest career fielding percentage for a third baseman) at the hot corner this year? Chavez also has 7 years of hitting 20 plus home runs, once led the league in walks (95 in 2004), and has a career .343 on base percentage.

Downsides: A lot of the praises I just sang about Chavez have not been evident since 2006. He played 90 games in 2007, and managed to hit 15 homers, but then he's only played 64 major league games since the start of the 2008 season. His fielding is still top notch, but his ability to stay healthy is a major issue when considering any contract with Chavez. Chavez also just made 12.5 million last year and while he would hopefully not expect a contract anywhere near that, he may have something of a high asking price.

I would make this deal if...: Chavez accepts a non-guaranteed contract or one with a small base salary laced with incentives for games played and plate appearances. I would want the whole to be null and void if he was unable to make it through spring training healthy. Also, if Ackley is ready bigs, I would like the M's to be prepared move Chone Figgins rather than play him at third and bat Chavez at DH. If healthy, Chavez's glove is too good to keep off the field.


Jack Cust, Designated Hitter/Outfielder, Athletics: Former A's slugger non-tendered and available.

Upsides: Since seeing ample playing time in 2007, Jack Cust has averaged 24 home runs over each of the last seasons, (28 if you don't include 2010, more on that later). He has a career on-base percentage of .378, (better than any Mariner posted last season), a career .452 slugging percentage (better than all Mariners in2010 except for the 57 games Russell Branyan played and 30 games of Mike Sweeney), and a career on-base plus slugging percentage of .830 (better than any Mariner in 2010 posted).

Downsides: He's a DH, and while he did play 16 games in the outfield last season, it's not something he should do regularly. Being the stereotypical big man power hitter of the long ball era, he has no speed. Also, he was sent to minors at the start of last season after leading the league in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons and strikes out about 30 percent of the time that he steps to the plate.

I would make this deal if...: He doesn't request a giant raise over last year's salary (he made 2.65 mil in 2010). For a guy that's probably a guaranteed 25+ homers, 3 million isn't that bad and he doesn't come with the back issues that Russell Branyan does.


Rich Harden, Starting Pitcher, Free Agent: Comeback hopeful of 2010 looking to make yet another comeback.

Upsides: With career 9.1 strikeouts per 9 innings and 3.65 ERA, Harden is a compelling case for solid veteran. He came out of the same Oakland system that saw the rise of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder, and he has pitched at least 20 games over each of the last 3 seasons.

Downsides: Harden was brought into Texas with the hope that he'd anchor their staff, but he only started 18 games and did not make the playoff roster. His season was abysmal (5.58 ERA with a 1.663 WHIP with 18 homers and only 92 innings pitched) and he was paid 6.5 million for it.

I would make this deal if...: it was a year ago, maybe. While Rich Harden could comeback to form, which by that I mean 2008's or 2004's version, why risk it? In a lot of ways, Harden is like Erik Bedard, except he doesn't pitch that well when he's hurting. While the strikeouts per 9 innings is glitzy, he was no where near that total last year and I really don't like him over the options that we already have. I could suggest a non-guaranteed or incentive based plan, but enough teams are interested he would probably not want to go that route and I would not want to give him a higher base rate than the league minimum.


Greg Zaun, Catcher, Free Agent: Longtime veteran looking for work once again.

Upsides: Zaun is experienced, which in catcher's terms means he's probably got a managing gig setup once he quites playing. He can field the position and call the pitches better than any of our other options right now. Plus, he can get on base (.344), better than our other options and only strikes out once out every seven to eight at bats. Apparently, he's good at controlling the clubhouse and a real leader.

Downsides: Zaun is experienced, which in life terms means he's 39. He's a part time player at best, having only played over 100 games 4 times in his 16 big league seasons. He's also pretty easy to be when stealing a base as Zaun only has a 24% rate of catching base stealers.

I would make this deal if...: I could be sure to get at least 90 games out of Zaun and sign him for 1.5 million tops. If Adam Moore proves himself, I don't want to spend a couple million to see Zaun on the bench each day.


Hideki Matsui, Designated Hitter, Free Agent: A rival this past season, perhaps the answer to the need for a lefthanded power bat?

Upsides: Matsui can still swing a powerful bat and managed to stroke out 21 homers last year. He has a career .290 average with a .369 on-base percentage and a career slugging percentage of .479. Exactly the kind of numbers you would want from a full time hitter. Plus, by adding the former Japanese slugger, the club may see increased revenue from overseas.

Downsides: Matsui should not see field action, especially in Safeco's giant outfield. He's a fulltime DH which doesn't allow a lot of flex in the lineup. He also be turning 37.

I would make this deal if...: Matsui would accept a lower salary than the 6.5 million from last year. I don't mind a fulltime DH that would add much needed power, but that's a high price to pay.


Miguel Olivo, Catcher, Free Agent: Former Mariner around for another go?

Upsides: He has better fielding and offense than the current options.

Downsides: He's being considered a backup for Moore.

I would make this deal if...: Olivo was to get more playing time than Moore.


Luis Valbuena, Infielder, Indians: Another former Mariner.

Upsides: He can handle second base until Ackley is ready and he can takeover shortstop when Jack Wilson gets injured. Still young at 25 years old.

Downsides: Not an offensive threat, though an improvement over Wilson.

I would make this deal if...: If we could give up a cheap player of the farm system. Valbuena barely makes more than the league minimum so this could be a possibility.

Onto the Winter Meetings

Well, the Mariners had a semi-busy weekend before seeing Jack Z hop a plan to DisneyWorld. In true Z fashion, he managed to bring back starter Erik Bedard for a non-guaranteed contract, he cut ties with Ryan Rowland-Smith, he traded Jose Lopez for a former first round draft pick, and he tendered contracts to Jason Vargas, Brandon League, David Aardsma, and Josh Wilson. All great moves in my opinion.

Bedard had been offered a guaranteed contract by at least another team, but Bedard has made statements that show he wants to prove to the city of Seattle that he was worth what was given up for him in 2007. While Zdurencik decided to give Bedard that chance though Bedard missed all of last season and most of 2009, he did it by structuring a contract that will not give Bedard anything of consequence unless Bedard can show he's at the peak of health and earn a spot in the starting rotation. Again, even while hurt, Bedard has been a highly effective pitcher, but should his return fail again, he's a very low risk to the payroll.

Lopez was not going to be given a contract anyway and for the Mariners to pickup pitching prospect Chaz Roe from the Rockies was an excellent move. Roe shows some promise and strengthens the depth in the farm system where pitching is concerned. Sure, Lopez could bounce back from a dismal 2010 and in Coors Field, he should be able to stroke some homers, but his career on base is horrible and I'd rather make room for Ackley. Maybe Roe will even break into the bullpen later this year.

Wilson is a potential backup fielder again and with Jack Wilson an injury risk, Josh comes at a low cost and easily releasable or returned to the minors if a more valuable replacement is made available. Vargas figures to be the #3 starter and League or Aardsma the closer, depending on if Aarsdma is traded or not.

For a rebuild season ahead of us this year, the off season is playing to our favor. Jayson Werth was given 126 mil for 7 years by the Nationals, taking a big time outfielder away from the likes of the Rangers and Angels. Furthermore, with Carl Crawford still available, the potential contract he will be offered has now increased in value with the gaudy contract that was awarded Werth. Essentially this means that any major contract tendered by our rivals risks tying up their payroll for several years.

Also, quite a few high power free agents find themselves on teams that won't contend or affect the M's. Mark Reynolds, a strikeout prone 30+ homer per year third baseman has now joined the Orioles, placing a power bat in the worst team in the best division in baseball. Lance Berkman, a power hitting outfielder/first baseman, has joined the St. Louis Cardinals and another highly sought first baseman, Adam Dunn, finds himself on the Chicago White Sox. The Red Sox finally got their highly coveted prize of Adrian Gonzalez, but gave up some of their best prospects, and will end up losing some other pieces, Adrian Beltre for one, in order to pay him.

Well, hopefully the M's make some exciting deals and at the very least, we can shoot for .500 this year!

Some New M's?

So, I figured with all the talk of who may not be coming back, let's have a look at some of the guys who might be available with their 2010 salaries in paranthesis.

Ryan Church, Outfielder (1.5 mil): The Diamonbacks have decided to non-tender Ryan Church. Church started off the season in a slump in Pittsburgh, but turned it around a bit when he reached Arizona. He's 32, so no spring chicken, but he's a good fit in the outfield with respectable defense and he can get onbase. He also has a little bit of pop and is a lefty. If he could be got for under his 2010 contract, he could be a steal.

Eric Threets, Relief Pitcher (League Minimum): Threets only pitched 12&1/3 innings for the White Sox, but did not allow a run and put up a 0.973 WHIP. His last couple of years in Triple-A for both the White Sox and Dodgers have shown promise and he could be a great addition to the pen as a low risk/high potential upside. Plus, he's a lefty.

Arbitration Deadline is Near

Tomorrow at 9:00 pm is the deadline for the Seattle Mariners to offer contracts to Starters, Jason Vargas and Ryan Rowland-Smith, Relievers David Aardsma and Brandon League, and Infielders Jose Lopez and Josh Wilson. Rumor has it, Lopez will not be offered a contract and will find himself a free agent. I like where this is headed.

While some people may feel loyalty towards Lopez and/or a sinking feeling that he may break out big for some other team, I am ready to try another option. Lopez has some power and in 2009, he knocked 26 homers, but using that attribute in the context of one good season as the deciding factor is trap that I no longer want to fall into. Lopez has a lifetime on-base percentage of .297 and is far from a clutch hitter. Sure, he can get some big hits, but not regularly, and he has never managed to draw more than 27 walks in a full season, meaning he has no plate discipline. He has no speed and defensively, he has always ranked in the top 3 for errors committed in each of his full major league seasons. While at times, there seemed to be a spark of talent and potential, but not consistent enough offensively or defensively, it seems he has become the next Yuniesky Betancourt though luckily, he won't injure Endy Chavez as a parting gift.

As for the others, Aardsma and League will be tendered. Both are worth the contracts they are paid and if the M's don't decide to keep Aardsma for this season, he will make a valuable trade chip. Vargas will also be tendered and should remain a bargain even with a raise as he was making the league minimum last season.

Hopefully, Ryan Rowland-Smith gets non-tendered. Great guyness aside, he had just about the most abysmal season a pitcher could have without packing it in. If the M's were to bring him back, it would hopefully be for the league minimum or even better, maybe an invitation to spring training without the offer of a contract unless he no hits every Cactus League batter he faces. Bottom line, nothing short of a miraculous 180 better see this guy on the M's' Big League Roster.

As for, Josh Wilson, I'm indifferent. He's a utility fielder that makes a minuscule salary. If there are better options, I'd want the M's to take it, but whose to say there will be.